When one looks at the pure numbers, things are very crystal clear. When there are X number of students in the elementary system the same and more number of kids turn up in high school.
When we look at the enrollment numbers from 2003 the trend is obvious, and the data proves there are the same and more kids move from elementary to high. See the attached chart.
This graph is plotted based on historical enrollments from 2003 and demographer projected numbers presented last month. As one can see the same number of kids in elementary turns up in high school in 10 year time period.
For example, if we have 2063 in 2003-2004 school year in elementary we have 1983 in 2013-2014. I have color coded the years for Elementary-high school so that is obvious to see. The same pattern one can see for the middle school as well in 10 years interval.
Demographer data doesn’t include the following:
1. Newborn kids coming into the system. For example, there are 3770 kids in the age of 0-4 in Dublin as of Feb 2017. Demographer didn’t add this data from 2015 as stated in his report
2. New homes built in Dublin. Demographer counted only 4228 homes which are approved and getting built or going to be built. but 3000 homes which are in different phases of the plan is not included. If we add these missing data these numbers will substantially increase.
We will have more than 6000 kids in high school in 9 years time frame. Period.
The data is available all along. In 2006 board decided not the build 2nd high even though they can see the elementary growth is projected to be 4809 in a high growth scenario. Look at what is in 2016. We had 5707 kids in elementary. If nothing changes the same or little less number of kids will flow through the system. It is easier to make a logical decision about the growth. The board failed to see the projections all along and again they are making the same mistake of picking a smaller site with a total count of 4400 -5000 max in the high school. If we look at current and proposed elementary numbers we will have high school kids numbers above 6000 in 9 years.